Hi Mike,
Thanks for your insight. I was suspicious that varroa was the likely root cause, but without a way to prove it, or substantiate with other experience (like yours of course) I was at a loss. I'm just a backyard hobbyist, but what you describe sounds like a recent evolution of the battle against varroa. Is that true? I assumed that the commercially-available miticides were effective enough, but what you're suggesting is that is not the case, or less the case today. This shift in effectiveness is a major threat to the economic sustainability of any size apiary!
For a location like mine (heavily forested central vt) where we rarely see a honey flow in the early summer, and almost exclusively rely on the goldenrod and aster flows of September, the bee population management (and hence mite population management) scheme needs to change. Following your model of making tons of nucs in preparation for a summer flow the following year, with the assumption that those nucs will suffer heavy losses in the fall/winter works if the location provides a honey flow before the nucs are made. I'll need to figure out how to orchestrate the brood breaks to both reduce the mite loads (and virus loads), and have large enough colonies for September honey production. Timing seems to be the next challenge, on top of implementing adequate mite treatment(s).